The 50 States of Gay Marriage and the Mid-Term Elections: Will One Affect the Other?
Talking about gay marriage these days is like one part waiting for a baby to be born and another part suspense thriller.
You never know when a court verdict is going to pop out or what’s going to happen from one hour to another.
The recent non-action by the Supreme Court — to not take up appeals from federal appeals courts in three circuits on overturning state level bans on gay marriage — was a definite watershed moment in the equal marriage movement.
In Massachusetts, we are sitting back with a nice Pinot watching the USA come to where we’ve been for the last decade.
It’s thrilling, nerve wracking, exhilarating and historic – but these adjectives only apply to the 50% of America. In the rest of the country, these changes are coming fast and the effects are likely to be shown by the electorate on November 5, 2014 – Mid-Term Election Day.
For those that are confused about my inside baseball speak, here you go:
The mid-term elections happen two years into a President’s term. The usual trend for mid-term elections is for the party that doesn’t hold the White House to make a strong showing — because the electorate is fed up with the powers that be.
Mid-term elections are happening in less than 20 days and gay marriage just became legal in a majority of states – and some of them very conservative. So, will this sudden movement toward equality be a factor in some of the key Senate races around the country?
My ensuing analysis looks at key states that the Democrats are trying to hold onto in order to retain control of the Senate. Why only Senate races? It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Dems will not succeed in taking control of the House.
Before we start though, here is a breakdown of the current state of marriage in the 50 states as of today – but things could change very quickly:
States where gay marriage has been fully legal, since even before the recent Supreme Court decision:
- Massachusetts
- Rhode Island
- Connecticut
- Vermont
- Maine
- New Hampshire
- Washington, D.C.
- Washington
- Maryland
- Iowa
- California
- New York
- Delaware
- Pennsylvania
- Minnesota
- New Jersey
- Illinois
- Hawaii
One state that started marriages after a state court judge invalidated the state’s gay marriage ban – and then the State’s Supreme Court put a stay on marriages pending appeal:
- Arkansas
States that have started gay marriages since the Supreme Court non-Action:
- Virginia
- Nevada
- Utah
- North Carolina
- Indiana
- Wisconsin
- Oklahoma
- Idaho
- Colorado
- West Virginia
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Wyoming
States that have started marriages but have stopped for appeals/still resisting the decisions in their circuits, but will eventually succumb to the SCOTUS decision:
- South Carolina
- Montana
- Kansas
- Missouri
States with no decision yet on gay marriage appeals — but decisions are pending:
- Texas
- Michigan
- Nebraska
- South Dakota
- North Dakota
- Nebraska
- Louisiana
- Arkansas
- Kentucky
- Tennessee
- Ohio
- Florida
- Mississippi
- Alabama
- Georgia
Where it Will Likely Matter:
- Sen. Kay Hagan (North Carolina – D) – This first time Senator came out publicly in support of gay marriage and has a 100% voting record with the HRC. She is currently in a heated battle for re-election against Tom Tillis, the NC Speaker of the House and the leader of the anti-gay marriage defense in the state. Latest polls say they are tied but Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper, is stilling saying the race is “tilting Democrat.” Gay marriage is still a divisive topic in the state and Tillis is using it as a campaign issue. Will North Carolina voters care on election day? I’m say yes – but only in the most conservative parts of the state that Hagan isn’t likely to win anyway. The major population centers of Charlotte and Raleigh will reward Hagan’s courage of supporting equal marriage and put her back in office for another term.
- Sen. Mark Begich (Alaska) – This first-time Senator is from the conservative frontier but votes the right way on LGBT issues since taking office on 2008. He has a 100% rating with the HRC. Begich’s Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan, supports an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to ban gay marriage – and the race is close! With the advent of gay marriage coming to Alaska last week, will voters react? I’d say its 50/50 that voters care and will return Begich to Washington.
- Sen. Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) – Landrieu is in the race of her life against Congressman Bill Cassidy. The smallest issues are becoming huge problems in the race for Landrieu and gay marriage is one of them. Recently a federal judge upheld the state’s ban on gay marriage as constitutional – the first type of ruling since Windsor. Following that decision, a state district court judge in Lafayette, declared the state’s ban unconstitutional. Appeals are pending and are being ushered forth now by Lambda Legal. Landrieu has not taken a stance on gay marriage – always saying she supports civil unions. Dailey is staunchly anti-gay and is using this recent turn of events in his rhetoric on the trail. Will this matter to voters in Louisiana on election day? I’m leaning toward yes and that Landrieu will not make it back to Washington.
It Might Matter:
- Michelle Nunn (Georgia) – Michelle Nunn, daughter of former longtime Georgia U. S. Senator Sam Nunn, is running in an open seat race that replaces retiring Republican conservative Senator Saxby Chambliss. Nunn supports equality for LGBT Americans, including marriage equality. Her opponent, Republican David Purdue, says, “Believing in the sanctity of marriage is a deeply held personal conviction. I will not waiver in defending it.” HRC has her on its top Elect Equality list for donors. Roll Call is saying that the race is “Favored Republican” but the latest polls are saying Perdue is only up 3.4%.
Equal marriage isn’t in Georgia – yet – but its become a campaign topic for Perdue in defending traditional values. However, Nunn’s courage is something that will draw voters in this increasingly blue state. I think it will draw more voters and get her across the line and take her to Washington.
- Cong. Gary Peters (Michigan) – With the retirement of long-time Michigan liberal Senator Carl Levin, the race to be his replacement is a tight race. Peters is a staunch supporter of LGBT rights coming out for gay marriage in 2002. His Republican opponent, Terri Lynn Land, is a former Michigan Secretary of State. She also recently voted to include anti-LGBT, anti-marriage equality in the State’s Republican Party’s platform. Michigan is a key swing state in elections and Roll Call is saying the race is “Leaning Democrat” but polling is showing a close race.
Michigan is waiting for an appeals decision from the 6th Circuit Court of Appeal on its gay marriage ban. With the marriage momentum around the country, and the impending gay marriage decision from the appeals court, makes Cong. Peters support is a popular position. Will the impending ruling affect the Peters/Land race? Some of the urban voters in the big cities might pay attention. Prediction – Sen. Peters
- Sen. Mark Udall (Colorado) – Colorado is a very purple state — despite the legalization of marijuana for recreational use. Udall is in a tough re-election campaign against Cong. Cory Gardner, a conservative Republican that represents Colorado’s 4th District and dubbed one of the “Republican Young Guns.” His District is also where the headquarters of Focus on the Family resides. Udall was a co-sponsor of ENDA and a leader in the successful fight to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Unlike Udall, Gardner opposed gay marriage, opposed the repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” and has earned a 0% on HRC’s scorecard. Gardner was a supporter of the Defense of Marriage Act, and even voted against allowing same-sex couples to jointly adopt children. Roll Call is saying this race is “Tilting Democrat” but polls are still saying Udall is one of the most endangered Senators up for re-election.
Recently, Gardner was endorsed by the major newspaper in the state, the Denver Post. With the advent of gay marriage in the state, the shock of Gardner’s endorsement, and a major push by the national Dems – will it be enough to sway Colorado voters to send Udall back to Washington?
Prediction – Sen. Udall returns.
Will Not Matter:
Arizona:
Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema is the first bisexual Congresswoman, elected in 2012, and represents a very purple Congressional District in Arizona. As an example of the area’s purpleness, this area voted for Romney in the 2012 Presidential but also elected Sinema over a conservative right-wing Republican opponent.
Cong. Sinema is in a tight race with a right-winger, Wendy Rogers who was deemed a “Young Gun” by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee and is enjoying the proceeds of such a designation. Sinema’s campaign and the Victory Fund are pushing hard for money to go up on the air earlier than her opponent.
Asked if the advent of gay marriage last week in Arizona will make a difference in her race the Congresswoman confidently stated that it will “not matter.” The libertarian state likes liberty – just not Obama.
However, will voters react adversely to the advent of gay marriage and vote for Sinema’s “traditional values opponent, Rogers? Prediction – Congresswoman Sinema for round 2 in DC.
