Tuesday is a big day for politics – it’s the primaries.
It is also usually the day that most voters forget to vote because it’s not such a big day for people who don’t live and breathe politics on a daily basis.
This is why I’m writing this piece directly to the LGBT community – get your asses out and vote!
We can make some history on Tuesday with some key wins.
If you read this, you have no excuse not to get to your voting location on Tuesday and vote.
None.
If you don’t know where you vote, click here and look it up: www.wheredoivotema.com.
Remember: If you show up and your name is not on the voting rolls, demand a provisional ballot.
MASSACHUSETTS
Governor’s Primary:
Democrats:
The Democratic primary is pretty solidly Martha Coakley’s to lose. In a recent Boston Globe poll, she had 43% of the vote versus 23% for Steve Grossman; Don Berwick is barely registering a heartbeat.
Martha has the support of MassEquality PAC and several LGBT power brokers, including Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse. Grossman also has many LGBT power brokers on his side – including former MassEquality Director Marc Solomon.
Both Grossman and Coakley have strong campaign teams and fundraising operations, which have allowed both to run ads. Berwick ran one and, well, it’s a bit sad.
Grossman got the Democratic endorsement at the Democratic State Convention in June, and he was just endorsed by the Boston Globe and is supported by a SuperPAC who has been running anti-Coakley ads. While those are all good things, I don’t think it is going to be enough to overcome Coakley on Tuesday.
Coakley’s GOTV operation is vast and her name recognition is twice that of the other candidates, which is a benefit of having been on a statewide ballot three times.
Analysis: I think the Tuesday nod will go to Coakley.
Republicans:
The Republican primary is Charlie Baker’s to lose. He has out-raised first-time candidate Marc Fisher 20 to 1 and has the advantage of it being his second state-wide run. He currently has $1.1 million on hand as of September 3, versus Fisher’s $33,000.
Fisher has some anti-gay history – and we all know Charlie is cool with the gay’s since he has a gay brother who he did a commercial with.
The primary race is almost a cruel joke being played on Fisher.
Baker is also backed by a SuperPAC, Commonwealth Future Independent Expenditure Political Action Committee, headed up by Romney gubernatorial and presidential campaign alum and Republican strategist Beth Lindstrom.
Another clue that Coakley will be the Democrat winner on Tuesday – the SuperPAC supporting Baker is already running ads attacking Coakley.
Analysis: Baker in a landslide – I’m betting 90% of the vote favor Baker.
Lt Governor:
The Democratic Lt. Governor’s race is a little tougher to call. This race is about as obscure as the office itself.
Three candidates are vying for the Dem nod on Tuesday and they include: openly-gay former Kennedy staffer Stephen Kerrigan, progressive favorite Mike Lake, and Cambridge City Councilor Leland Cheung.
Kerrigan is the current favorite to win. In a recent Boston Globe poll, Kerrigan was the only candidate who made it to double digits among likely primary voters. He has also out-raised the other two by a significant margin and is the only one up on TV with a commercial.
Cheung did get the endorsement of the Boston Globe and Lake is the sweetheart of the progressive activists, but Kerrigan has long ties around the state. Kerrigan was the first candidate out of the gate, and he has put together a strong statewide campaign.
Winner projection on Tuesday – Kerrigan.
Attorney General:
See the article posted here last week on Healey v. Tolman.
Winner: Maura Healey.
Treasurer:
This is a three person race that is almost impossible to call.
Deb Goldberg (D-Brookline), Sen. Barry Finegold (D-Andover), and Rep. Tom Conroy (D-Wayland) all have run good races.
Goldberg and Conroy jousted for the Democratic nomination at the Democratic State Convention back in June. Finegold came in a distant third. But the convention is not a normal place – its full of activists and party stalwarts and is rarely reflective of the general Democratic primary voters.
All three have television ads up and running. Goldberg’s focuses on her business background. Finegold’s focuses on his support for the Market Basket boycott. And Conroy focusses on his experience and his triplet teenage daughters (God help him).
The endorsements for these candidates are all over the map. The Globe endorsed Conroy. The Herald endorsed Goldberg. The Rainbow Times endorsed Goldberg. Various unions have endorsed Goldberg and Feingold.
Analysis: It’s anyone’s race.
Rhode Island:
Will Ferri prevail in the Rhodie Lt. Gov primary on Tuesday?
Frank Ferri was the last candidate to jump into the Lt. Governor’s race but he is polling first in the most recent polls out of Rhode Island.
Ferri, a former State Representative from Warwick, RI, and a key legislative proponent of Rhode Island’s fight for gay marriage, is running an aggressive campaign and has been endorsed by the Rhode Island teacher’s union, the SEIU, and the current Lieutenant Governor Dr. Elizabeth Roberts.
He is up against two well funded candidates: the current Secretary of State Ralph Mollis and the Cumberland, RI Mayor Tom McKee.
Mollis is by far the fundraising winner of the election and likely the candidate to beat on Tuesday. Mollis has received the endorsement of the state Democratic party at the Rhode Island Democratic Convention, the RI AFL-CIO, many of the Building Trades, and the Providence Democratic City Committee. He is the quintessential party insider and will be favored by the party machinery.
McKee is a mayor of a significant population base in the Cumberland and Blackstone valleys. If he can turn out his base, he can likely contend with the party machinery of Mollis.
Ferri is the most progressive of the group and will need to activate that base in order to have a shot at victory on Tuesday. Ferri will require a truly activist voter turnout in the Democratic primary that support him as the biggest “outsider” in race of all currently elected politicians — including himself.
Will Ferri make it? Likely no.
